Two clashing climatic behemoths, one natural and one with human fingerprints, will square off this summer to determine how quiet or chaotic the Atlantic hurricane season will be.
Homes are flooded in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, Aug. 30, 2021, in Jean Lafitte, La.
The federal agency Thursday announced its forecast of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine becoming hurricanes and one to four powering into major hurricanes with winds greater than 110 mph. Normal is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes. “That’s really what it boils down to is: Which is going to win or do they just cancel each other out and you end up with a near-normal season?” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “I respect them both.”El Nino is a natural temporary warming of the Pacific that happens every few years and changes weather worldwide. Climate models predict as the world warms, El Ninos get stronger.
The Atlantic, especially hugging the African coast to the far east where storms form, is about 1.8 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average of the last 30 years and is the warmest it has been for this time of year, Klotzbach said. Warm Atlantic waters not only make storms stronger and more able to withstand El Nino’s shear but they create an opposite direction upper level wind that could counterbalance El Nino.
“The anomalously warm ocean temperatures unquestionably have a human fingerprint on them,” said former NOAA hurricane scientist Jim Kossin, now of the risk firm The Climate Service. The University of Arizona looks at the same two clashing forces and sees a different outcome, predicting a higher-than-normal nine hurricanes, 19 named storms and five major hurricanes because it expects “the Atlantic side to be dominant, leading to a very active season,” said University of Arizona atmospheric sciences professor Xubin Zeng.
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