Seismologists have long wondered whether it is possible to predict earthquakes before they happen. Now it seems GPS data could let us do just that - if we solve one problem first
The pair have used GPS data to identify a gradual, accelerating slip between tectonic plates in the lead-up to an earthquake. These slips are too small to appear on seismographs but could – if detected – indicate when earthquakes are about to begin.
Bletery says that this is indicative of a gradual, slow and otherwise undetectable slip between tectonic plates starting around two hours before earthquakes – something that could lead to a reliable earthquake detector. But there is a problem. Bletery says that the noise levels of current GPS sensors means that detection is only possible on the big data set, and not from any one site. That would require GPS sensors able to detect movements of just 0.1 millimetres, he says.
“We can’t detect at the scale of one earthquake, so we cannot make predictions,” says Bletery. “But it tells us there’s something going on, and if we make significant progress in measurement – either the sensor itself, improving its sensitivity, or by just having more of them – we could be able to perceive things and make predictions.”at the University of California, Berkeley, says the work looks promising, but the proposed signals will need to be confirmed by further research.
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