Gold prices have not been able to hold onto gains in a meaningful way. The technical structure remains weak as long as gold prices hold below the area around 1680.
, Fed rate hike odds have shifted higher into 2023, with markets now discounting the main rate peaking near 5% - a meaningful shift higher from ahead of the CPI release, when the main Fed rate was priced to peak near 4.7% in 2Q’23. US Treasury yields and US real yields have turned higher anew, much to the chagrin of gold prices.
Gold volatility was trading at 16.46 at the time this report was written. The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is +0.67 while the 20-day correlation is +0.02. One week ago, on October 10, the 5-day correlation was -0.96 and the 20-day correlation was -0.22.The hammer candle that appeared last Thursday found no follow-through thus far, bringing into question the validity of a near-term bottom.
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