This century, Australia has suffered more frequent and more severe bushfires. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 were the worst on record for the area burned and property loss.
What caused fire climates to shift? Conventional scientific wisdom assumes the climate's response to increasing emissions is gradual and linear. When rapid change happens, it's often thought to be due toFire weather is calculated using the, which takes into account vegetation dryness, windspeed, temperature and relative humidity.
There is no evidence for a long-term trend. Instead, the data shows a shift from one stable fire climate regime to another. When we showed this research to Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire & Rescue New South Wales, he said it was"utterly consistent with what firefighters are experiencing worldwide: more frequent, intense, and damaging bushfires that sometimes are impossible to control."For instance, what would have been the one in ten bad fire season under the earlier regime became, on average, a one in two fire season in the second regime.
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