Italy's Campi Flegrei is showing some troubling early warning signs, but scientists caution that its eruption is far from certain.
To see how likely an eruption may be, the researchers combined seismic readings with measurements of ground uplift to map estimates of the changing tensile strength of the region's crust and its proximity to rupture.
The researchers' model suggests that the crust beneath Campi Flegrei is breaking and not bending under pressure. Deep beneath Earth, the churn of underground gas and magma has been slowly flexing and weakening Campi Flegrei's crust since the 1950s, reducing its tensile strength to just a third of what it was in 1984, according to the study.
The same can also be said for the size of Campi Flegrei's potential eruption, which is difficult to predict but is much more likely to be small than large, according to the scientists. "It's the same for all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations. Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and subsiding, as seen at similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest,"
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