Both EUR/JPY and EUR/USD rates are working on daily bullish outside engulfing bars, a potential hint that a near-term bottom has been reached. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP rates are going nowhere fast, as both the GBP and the Euro have traded in tandem.
Pressure is off of the Euro at the moment as the a drop in US Treasury yields and a modest rebound in US equities is helping firm up risk appetite. Two of the major EUR-crosses, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD rates, are carving out bullish outside engulfing bars on the daily chart, suggesting that a near-term bottom is being established. Meanwhile, with both the British Pound and the Euro trading in tandem in recent days, EUR/GBP rates have been steadily trading sideways.
EUR/USD rates remain within the confines of a descending channel in place since February. Momentum indicators retain their bearish tone. The pair is below its daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which remains aligned in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is holding flat while below its signal line, and daily Slow Stochastics are holding just below their median line.
EUR/USD: Retail trader data shows 59.42% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.12% higher than yesterday and 17.07% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.17% lower than yesterday and 4.14% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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