First the good news.
The supply of minerals critical to the green energy transition could move close to levels needed to support climate pledges by 2030, according to the first annual review of the sector by the International Energy Agency .
Risks of schedule delays and cost overruns have been "prevalent in the past" and "cannot be ignored" when projecting future supply, the IEA said. The IEA's clean energy equipment index, tracking costs of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, fell consistently between 2014 and 2020 but has since broken that downtrend as raw material inputs push up overall manufacturing costs.There has been only limited success in diversifying the geographical sourcing of critical minerals in recent years, the IEA said.The processing segment of the chain has actually become more concentrated as incumbent players consolidate their dominant position.
Other minerals such as magnesium, manganese, phosphorus and silicon are all niche products but vulnerable to disruption due to a high reliance on a limited number of suppliers. IRENA estimates that 54% of energy transition minerals are located on or near Indigenous peoples' land, the percentage rising to over 80% in the case of lithium projects.
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