The world has been inching closer to the 1.5-degree threshold due to human-caused climate change for years. Scientists expect a temporary burst of heat from an El Nino will supercharge this.
FILE - Steam and exhaust rise from different companies on a cold winter day on Jan. 6, 2017, in Oberhausen, Germany.
"It won’t be this year probably. Maybe it’ll be next year or the year after" that a year averages 1.5 degrees Celsius, said report lead author Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist at the United Kingdom’s Met Office. "A single year doesn’t really mean anything," Hermanson said. Scientists usually use 30-year averages.
"We don't expect the longer-term average to pass 1.5C until the early-to-mid 2030s," Hausfather said in an email."We see this report as more of a barometer of how we're getting close, because the closer you get to the threshold, the more noise bumping up and down is going to bump you over the threshold randomly," Hermanson said in an interview. And he said the more random bumps over the mark occur, the closer the world actually gets to the threshold.
And that means a 98% chance of breaking the 2016 annual global temperature record between now and 2027, the report said. There's also a 98% chance that the next five years will be the hottest five years on record, the report said.
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