Scientists, driven by the recent activity of Italy's Campi Flegrei supervolcano complex, investigated its 1538 eruption to gain insights.
Researchers studied a unique dataset, including geological, archaeological, and historical data, to understand the events surrounding the 1538 eruption— the only historically analyzable eruption of the Phlegraean caldera. They analyzed ground-level changes along the coast from 1515 to 1650.
"It emerged that the eruption was preceded by an intense deformation of the ground which first concerned the area of Pozzuoli, then localized in the area of the future eruptive vent, reaching an elevation of 20 meters," said first author Elisa Trasatti, a researcher at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology , in aTheir models also showed magma transfer during the eruption from a 4 km deep source to the Monte Nuovo vent.
The eruption would also release sulfur and toxic ash plume, potentially inducing a years-long global winter, leading to crop failures and massHowever, the researchers uncovered that eruptions from Campi Flegrei can fizzle out without the volcano unleashing its full destructive power. "It has been estimated that the portion of magma erupted in 1538 is about one-hundredth of that which accumulated under the volcano between 1250 and 1650," explained Valerio Acocella, professor at the Roma Tre University and co-author of the research.
"This fact highlights the strong capacity of the Phlegrean system to retain the magma, erupting a minimal portion."
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