The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency admitted he underestimated Ukraine’s will to fight in the lead up to Russia’s invasion.
The invasion of Ukraine came after weeks of warnings by the Biden administration that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was likely to invade. But a top defense intelligence official admitted last week that he had underestimated the quality of the Ukrainian military. Even President Joe Biden said in January he believed a Russian victory in Ukraine would essentially be certain.
Haines replied: “So, we assessed prior to the invasion that he was overestimating — or underestimating, rather — the Ukrainians’ ... resistance. So, I think we did well there. We did not do as well in terms of predicting the military challenges that he has encountered with his own military.” Cotton questioned if the U.S. had also botched how long Kyiv would hold out or how long Ukraine would still have an air force or air defense systems. Berrier said the DIA made assumptions about Putin’s assumptions that were wrong, and Cotton asked why.
During that same press conference, Biden said Russia would win a war with Ukraine, saying Russia would “be able to prevail over time,” though he said the cost would be heavy. In comparison, both Biden and Milley, as well as the rest of the administration, appeared to vastly overestimate the strength and willpower of the Afghan army ahead of the Taliban's rapid takeover of the country last August.
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