In WIRED’s early days, writers made sweeping, dramatic predictions about how technology would disrupt our lives. In 2002, it was Wi-Fi. Read medialab cofounder Nicholas Negroponte’s take on how Wi-Fi “lily pads and frogs” would transform the future.
Over the past 30 years, telecommunications has enjoyed three major changes, each a real epoch. The first, in the '70s, was digital. The second was packet switching. The third was wireless. Each spurred some fundamental innovation. The first launched multimedia, among other things. The second, "always on" connectivity. And the third, functional mobility. Combined with worldwide deregulation, these generational changes have given the consumer more services at lower costs.
Five years ago, I put a wireless LAN in my home in Boston. At the time it cost about $2,000 for the base station and $500 for each device I wanted to connect. Today, it costs $120 and $50, respectively, and the price is dropping. As a result, this kind of networking is growing wildly, with a conservatively estimated 15 million connections in the US.
Look at the numbers: 3G, in its most generous projections, will deliver data speeds of 1 megabit per second—in two years. Today, Wi-Fi commonly provides 11 megabits, offering up to 54 megabits. Which standard do you think will be adopted?In the future, each Wi-Fi system will also act like a small router, relaying to its nearest neighbors. Messages can hop peer-to-peer, leaping from lily to lily like frogs—the stems are not required.
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