Ukraine is bracing for a new and potentially more challenging phase in its war to repel Russia’s invasion as the battles shift east to new, wide-open terrain that could give more of an advantage to the Russians.
“They will be in combat battles where both sides see each other, and if they are not in armored vehicles they will be vulnerable.”that Russia encountered in its initial push into Ukraine should be less of an issue in the east, Watling said, because Russia already occupies part of the Donbas region, which directly borders Russia, making it easier to send supplies directly from Russia.
Russia can meanwhile draw on vast quantities of mechanized armor including tanks and armored vehicles, where it possesses a clear advantage over the smaller Ukrainian army, said retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, a former supreme allied commander of NATO. Russia also possesses artillery systems that have longer ranges than Ukrainian weapons, creating difficulties for Ukrainian forces when they face each other, said Breedlove, who is now with the Middle East Institute.
Many observers doubt, however, that Russia’s already-exhausted and depleted forces have the strength to take much more territory from Ukraine any time soon. Russia has mobilized 60,000 reservists and is assembling new battle units to replace those lost over the past few weeks, but it will take time to equip and train them, said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at St Andrews University.
Russia may be able to win an advantage in some local areas, “but the army they have won’t be large enough to hold the area they take,” O’Brien said. “The army they have is too small.”The new environment “is not a game-changer,” said Watling. “It depends on whether the Russians are tactically up for it, and they’ve been pretty inept so far.”
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