After years of paying big for songs going viral on social media, labels’ strategies may be shifting.
‘s “Harlem Shake” in 2013, if not before. In the years since, social media and streaming platforms have become far more potent, and labels invested heavily in honing their research, hiring data whizzes to develop tools that scrape these platforms top to bottom.
Every big label had access to the same pool of information from the social media partners, more or less, so speedy outreach to artists was essential. Even so, bidding wars were common. Especially in 2019, 2020 and 2021, “it felt like every single day another artist signed a deal that was a gazillion dollars,” says another music industry lawyer who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
The checks were big, but so were some of the hits — none more so than Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” an early beneficiary of a TikTok craze that went on to become the in Billboard Hot 100 history. Still, even with a massive supply of data, forecasting the future remained notoriously difficult. Months of robust streaming for one single may say nothing about the fate of the artist’s follow-up. Despite artists’ and labels’ best efforts, it’s now standard to hear that engineering a trend on TikTok is about as likely as buying the winning lottery ticket from the local corner store.
Taking these factors into account, entertainment attorneys say the industry is starting to look more carefully at viral phenomena. “There’s a lot of viral stuff now that doesn’t get doesn’t get as much attention as it did a year or year-and-a-half ago,” says, an associate at Mark Music and Media Law. “A lot of things that should’ve been signed to single deals, labels signed to record deals, and they ended up having to replicate the success and it was virtually impossible.
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