Analysis: New polling from DeSantis allies gets at the generic ballot in an interesting way.
While Trump-endorsed candidates performed similarly to other Republicans in safe districts, that was decidedly not the case in competitive ones. In roughly a quarter of House districts in which the margin of victory was 15 points or less, Trump-backed candidates underperformed the baseline for their party by an average of five points, while GOP candidates who weren’t backed by Trump overperformed the baseline by 2.2 points.
This is about Trump’s endorsements rather than Trump’s broader impact on the party, but it gets at how his style of candidacy isn’t good for the party as a whole. The is also well established. And even if it’s just Trump doing worse than DeSantis in the presidential race, it would stand to reason that would bleed into other races.After the “Access Hollywood” tape was released in October 2016, it wasn’t just Trump who suffered; it was the GOP as a whole.
And then there is what happened as Trump was securing the nomination in early 2016. What had been a consistent GOP advantage on the presidential generic ballot rather quicklyThings turned out okay for the GOP in 2016, despite all that polling. But that was owing in part to Hillary Clinton’s own problems as a candidate and the difficulty of a party’s holding the White House after a two-term presidency.
Everything since then confirms this was hardly a resounding affirmation of Trump’s political skills and broad appeal. And the idea that his party might do better with the political middle without him — both at the presidential level and down ballot — shouldn’t be too surprising.
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