Prices for spot crude in much of the world are rising on strong demand and a supply crunch, but in the oil futures market, worries of a recession have kept a lid on values.
Oil futures could be oversold and ripe for a reversal if global demand keeps running at the current rate of about 100 million barrels per day, closing in on pre-pandemic levels.
Still, futures market investors and traders have pared their risk appetite, worried that U.S. interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve could slow the economy. Brent crude futures have declined about 8% since mid-June when the Fed and European central banks raised interest rates. U.S. crude futures fell 10%.
Prices for physical crude do not always trade in tandem with oil futures. But a substantial divergence in differentials can point to speculators out of sync with fundamentals.
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