Nevada emerging as tightest 2022 Senate race, and that’s a problem for Democrats Analysis by DavidMarkDC.
A swath of recent polls shows Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailing Republican rival Adam Laxalt, a former Nevada attorney general and the scion of a prominent GOP political family. That puts Senate Democrats in a tough position as Election Day nears.
A Sept. 14-19 poll by Data for Progress, a Democratic-aligned group, found Laxalt leading Cortez Masto, 47% to 46%. A Sept. 17-20 Trafalgar Group poll gave Laxalt a wider lead over Cortez Masto, 47% to 43%. A Sept. 8-10 Emerson/The Hill poll put Laxalt ahead 42% to 41%, while an InsiderAdvantage poll Tuesday also had him up, 46% to 43%.
Moreover, Democrats and allies contend the polls are not properly surveying Nevada’s electorate, particularly in the Spanish-speaking communities, which is a similar problem in neighboring Arizona, noted Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who has argued for months against the notion of a “red wave” that would sweep Republicans into power on Capitol Hill.
Before the freak out about Data for Progress’ new polls begins a reminder that they’ve had the biggest miss of the cycle, calling NY-19 +10 R on Election Day itself when it went +2.2D.Nevertheless, the Nevada Senate race is a new cause for concern for Democrats, a state thought to be going the party's way. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump in Nevada 50.06% to 47.67%, the fourth straight Silver State win by a Democratic nominee.
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