Analysis: It still suggests a path to victory in a key state — New Hampshire — for the would-be presidential candidate.
The good news for DeSantis is that even this poll suggests that a path to victory remains.
While he trails Trump by 20 points, he’s the overwhelming leader on second-choice votes. Thirty percent list DeSantis as their second choice, while just 14 percent say the same of Trump. So both men are the first or second choice of a small majority of voters. And DeSantis is the second choice of a majority of Trump voters — 56 percent.
That suggests that DeSantis remains well-poised if Trump falters, if the race is distilled down to the two of them, or if the GOP readjusts its priorities in favor of electability. DeSantis also, despite his deficit, remains more popular than Trump. While the gap has closed since January, DeSantis’s image split remains better than Trump’s — even in a poll in which he trails.
All of which points to Trump’s ceiling in New Hampshire. The January poll showed that only about half of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Trump, and even the new poll shows that just 51 percent want him to run. There’s been plenty of talk of late about whether DeSantis should follow through and actually run. On the one hand, he has clearly faded, and running against Trump is no picnic. On the other, there’s no guarantee DeSantis’s chances would be better in 2028 — his stock has been high thanks to a huge reelection win in November and the lack of other credible Trump challengers — and pulling out now in the face of Trump’s repeated attacks would be a major embarrassment.
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