Analysis: Biden won in 2020 in large part as a reaction to Trump. That might not work next year — even if he's running against Trump.
early opinions about the 2024 presidential contest. It’s very early, admittedly; by this time next year, less than a handful of contests will have been held. Polling a year out from primaries in previous cycles have not been flawless predictors of outcomes.Nonetheless, evaluating this particular question — where Biden and Trump stand — offers its own insights, given that the 2024 contest may come down, once again, to a relative comparison between these two candidates.
Our poll also asked how people would feel if Biden or Trump won the nomination and, subsequently, the election. More than 6 in 10 respondents said they’d feel dissatisfied or angry if Biden won, with more than 9 in 10 Republicans holding that position. But notice the difference in those saying they’d be “angry.” Six in 10 Republicans said they’d be angry about a Biden win; 7 in 10 Democrats said the same about a Trump victory. Independents were about as likely to be angry at either, though slightly more Trump than Biden.Again, this is in part how Biden won: People were furious at Trump’s presidency.
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