“There’s never been a time when the divorce between hype and reality in oil and gas has been greater.'
Biden’s Russian oil ban hasn’t affected supplies in the U.S. yet. There may be a cargo that’s been canceled, but it’s had relatively little short-term impact on U.S. supplies.
“When there’s uncertainty about the future, what happens is the price rises today, because people are locking in their supplies now.”It’s mostly white guys who are yelling at each other. Some of them represent buyers, some of them represent sellers. And they’re trying to make a deal. The buyers want to buy oil, and they have limits on what they want to pay. The sellers want to sell oil and they want to get as much as possible.
“The impossible quickly becomes the commonplace. It’s this rapid change where there’s a total reframing of energy in Europe.”And one of the things that’s going to happen between now and then is that Europe is going to massively reduce its consumption of natural gas. They’re going to replace some of the Russian gas supply with supplies from Norway, some of it from Azerbaijan, some of it from global LNG supplies. But there’s a limited pot of global LNG.
That is crazy—it’s basically like reducing 10% of their supply. On [March 8], Europe comes out and says, a third, screw that—The impossible quickly becomes the commonplace. It’s this rapid change where there’s a total reframing of energy in Europe. Renewables, conservation, and efficiency are not just about energy security, they’re about national security. They’ve got war on their doorstep, and one of the weapons of that war is energy. Let’s neutralize that weapon.
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