America’s debt may be its long-term undoing | Opinion
Based on current projections, the nation’s debt 30 years from now would be nearly two times the size of our nation’s economic output. Interest payments would snowball from a problematic 2.5% of GDP today to a debilitating 6.7% in 2053, with interest expenses exceeding all discretionary spending by 2047 and exceeding all Social Security spending by 2051, the CBO estimates.
It is possible to have a pro-growth strategy and be fiscally responsible, but not until Republicans and Democrats recognize the complexity of an aging population, rising health care costs, slowing workforce growth, and spiraling interest on the debt. Democrats can be chastised for tax-and-spend policies and Republicans can be reproached for focusing on cutting taxes and discretionary spending and underplaying the need for new revenue.
America’s changing demographics demand attention to these threats. An aging population, unsettled immigration policy and low birth rates translate into slower growth of the labor force and strains on productivity. By CBO estimates, the share of Americans over age 65 is expected to increase from 17.5% this year to 22.5% in 2053, increasing the cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits. Today, these programs will make up 10.9% of GDP but will reach roughly 14.8% in 2053, CBO predicts. At the same time, the labor force, which pays taxes to support retirees, isn’t adding workers fast enough to fund those promised entitlement programs.
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