Governor races are often idiosyncratic contests that defy national trends. But even by that standard, this election has been a highly unusual one.
The election cycle started largely focused on Democratic incumbents on defense in traditional battleground states — like Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — or open seat battles in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania. And while almost all of those states still remain on the board, the map has expanded significantly to include bluer states like Oregon and New Mexico, as well as sleeper contests like deep-red Oklahoma.
It is partially a story of resilience for Democratic incumbents. While many are still locked in very close contests that they could lose on Tuesday, Democratic governors have broadly not been knocked out of contention by an unfavorable national political environment — though they could all get swept away if the election results are as dire for Democrats as some of the polling in federal races indicates.
That said, the overall environment provides an opening for Republicans to retake a significant number of governorships. The GOP currently has 28 governors to 22 for Democrats — but four of the five “Toss Up” governor’s races in the POLITICO Election Forecast are currently Democratic-held, and Democrats are protecting a lot more “Lean” seats too.President Joe Biden won Oregon by 16 points in 2020, but it’s poised to have one of the closest governor races in the country.
It starts, first and foremost, with the candidacy of Betsy Johnson, a one-time Democratic lawmaker who launched a well-funded independent campaign for governor. Both parties broadly agree that she’s pulling more support from Democrats than Republicans. That’s made the race between Democrat Tina Kotek, a former state House speaker, and Republican Christine Drazan, a former state House minority leader, one of the closest in the country.
The contest has revolved around crime and homelessness in the state, along with the legacy of outgoing Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, who is one of the more unpopular chief executives in the country.has been another surprise race. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul took over the blue state at a tumultuous time for Democrats there, replacing Andrew Cuomo atop the party.
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