This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will likely bring fewer storms than average, scientists said, though they cautioned the forecast is less certain than usual because it is complicated by El Niño
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will likely bring fewer storms than average, scientists said—offering a potential respite for coastal locales after a costly 2022—though they cautioned the forecast is less certain than usual because it is complicated by El Niño.
Researchers at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science anticipate 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in 2023, according to a forecast released Thursday. A typical hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, results in 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.struck Florida
, among other places, and caused $112.9 billion in damage, according to the federal government’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Ian was the third costliest storm on record, after 2005’s Hurricane Katrina and 2017’s Hurricane Harvey. The forecast for 2023 comes with “larger-than-normal uncertainty” because of evolving atmospheric conditions, said research scientist Phil Klotzbach, who led the team that produced the CSU report.
Dr. Klotzbach, who also serves as a nonresident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute, an industry trade group that publicized the research, said the forecast is based in part on expected conditions related to El Niño, a warm and frequently wet weather system that is associated with stronger-than-normal winds in the upper atmosphere. Those winds can tear apart a developing hurricane, he said.
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